Pragmatic policy on interest rates, immigration and taxation could ensure a stable, if expensive, housing market until 2027
Unlocking the Future Report: 5-Year Perspectives by RE/MAX Canada in partnership with CIBC Capital Markets and the Conference Board of Canada
TORONTO, ON and KELOWNA, BC, March 29, 2022 /CNW/ — Today, RE/MAX Canada spear chapter one of Unlocking the Future: A 5-Year Perspective, a series of reports in collaboration with experts in the relevant field to be published over the next year based on specific “what if” scenarios related to economic policy decisions, climate change, the future of the site work and technology.
Residential real estate is more than just a commodity or an investment measured month by month or quarter by quarter. And while the housing market is a key economic indicator, the vast majority of current and potential homeowners view their home as a long-term financial and emotional investment.
The first chapter examines economic scenarios relating to interest rates, immigration policy and taxation, in cooperation with Benjamin TalDeputy Chief Economist and Jamie Golombek, Managing Director, Tax and Estate Planning, CIBC; and the Conference Board of Canada. This chapter concludes, with caveats, that despite economic headwinds, the Canadian housing market is more stable than many realize and is expected to remain stable over the next five years. Although home prices are likely to remain high, price growth may be less extreme than that experienced over the past three years.
This report, along with those that follow, attempt to provide something that will help Canadians take a longer-term view of their investments by considering possible hypothetical outcomes based on historical learnings and current and future market conditions. . The intention is to get Canadians into this “sandbox” idea, but keep in mind RE/MAX, and its collaborators on this report are not trying to predict the future, but to model different releases for the collective benefit of Canadians.
“The extraordinary real estate activity over the past two years has caused a lot of uncertainty and anxiety for many buyers, sellers and people aspiring to enter the Canadian market. To help ease some of the worries and concerns that come with social and economic volatility, we wanted to give Canadians more long-term context and clarity ─ to be better informed ─ about their most prized possession and one of their most valuable assets,” said Christopher AlexanderPresident, RE/MAX Canada.
Alexander adds, “As a scenario-based exercise, the first chapter also examines scenarios that could potentially ‘upset the apple basket’ if the Bank of Canada overdone in the fight against inflation, politicians fail to link immigration policy to the needs of our labor market, or our governments seek to contain deficits with aggressive new taxes. Although we predict that it could be stable in five years, this is by no means assured.”
Key points to remember:
- Interest rate increases on a reasonable schedule of four times a year would create a stable and looser housing market over the next five years.
- Current immigration policy is heavily focused on accepting new Canadians based on their economic and social capital characteristics (i.e. education, French/English skills, and previous work or study experience in Canada). However, the policy could be more clearly linked to national labor market demands, particularly in relation to construction trades, potentially addressing housing supply issues related to skills shortages.
- While the deployment of taxes such as the Foreign Buyers Tax has come to the fore in recent years as a tactic to calm from Canada housing prices, the removal of the capital gains exemption for primary residences could have a greater market disruption impact.
According to a Léger survey commissioned by RE/MAX Canada as part of the report:
- Over the next five years, Canadians said taxes (50%), rising interest rates (46%) and the possibility of an economic recession (42%) were among their top three concerns when it was about buying a house.
- Looking five years ahead, 37% of Canadians say their favorite community would be the suburbs, while 30% want to live in an urban environment and 27% say rural.
- While 61% of Canadians agree that real estate is the best long-term investment they could make (something they don’t see changing over the next five years), rising property taxes (64%), rising interest rates (58 percent) and possible capital gains tax (55 percent) are factors that would cause barriers or concerns when it comes to buying a home in this time frame of time.
For more information and to download the full report, visit: https://blog.remax.ca/canada-housing-market-outlook-to-2027/
About the 2022 Unlocking the Future report:
The 2022 RE/MAX Unlocking the Future report includes information from RE/MAX Canada partners CIBC Capital Markets and the Conference Board of Canada and is purely hypothetical. The information was supplemented with research from a Leger consumer survey (details below).
Leger is Canada’s largest full-service market research firm. An online survey of 1,633 Canadians was completed between March 4-6 using Leger’s online panel. Leger’s online panel has approximately 400,000 members nationally and boasts a 90% retention rate. A probability sample of the same size would yield a margin of error of +/- 2.43%, 19 times out of 20.
About the RE/MAX network
As one of the world’s leading real estate franchisors, RE/MAX, LLC is a subsidiary of RE/MAX Holdings (NYSE: RMAX) with more than 140,000 agents in nearly 9,000 offices with a presence in more than 110 countries and territories. No one in the world sells more real estate than RE/MAX, as measured by residential transactions. RE/MAX was founded in 1973 by Dave and Gail Liniger, with an innovative entrepreneurial culture offering its agents and franchisees the flexibility to operate their business independently. RE/MAX agents have lived, worked and served in their local communities for decades, raising millions of dollars each year for Children’s Miracle Network Hospitals® and other charities. To learn more about RE/MAX, to search real estate listings or find an agent in your community, please visit remax.ca. For the latest RE/MAX news Canadaplease visit blog.remax.ca.
This report contains “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the “safe harbor” provisions of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of words such as “believe”, “have the intention”, “expect”, “estimate”, “plan”, “outlook”, “project” and other similar words and expressions which predict or indicate future events or trends which are not statements of historical issues. These forward-looking statements include statements regarding housing market conditions and the Company’s results of operations, performance and growth. Forward-looking statements should not be construed as guarantees of future performance or results. Forward-looking statements are based on information available at the time such statements are made and/or on the good faith belief of management at that time regarding future events and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include (1) the global COVID-19 pandemic, which has affected the Company and continues to pose significant and widespread risks to the Company’s business, the Company’s ability to successfully complete the planned reacquisition and to integrate the repurchased regions into its (3) changes in the real estate market or interest rates and the availability of financing, (4) changes in business and economic activity in general, (5) the ability to the Company’s ability to attract and retain quality franchisees, (6) the Company’s franchisees’ ability to recruit and retain real estate agents and mortgage originators, (7) changes in laws and regulations, (8 ) the Company’s ability to enhance, market and protect the RE/MAX and Motto Mortgage brands, (9) the Company’s ability to implement its technology initiatives, and (10) exchange rate fluctuations, have as well as the risks and uncertainties described in the sections titled “Risk Factors” and “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” in the most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and Quarterly Reports on Form 10- Q filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) and similar disclosures in subsequent periodical publications. and current reports filed with the SEC, which are available on the Investor Relations page of the Company’s website at www.remax.com and on the SEC website at www.sec.gov. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date they are made. Except as required by law, the Company does not intend and undertakes no obligation to update this information to reflect future events or circumstances.
SOURCE RE/MAX Canada
For further information: Danielle Scott, [email protected]416-909-5185, Lydia McNutt, [email protected]905-301-5980