L-NP fills the gap on ALP after Albanese’s “blunder” on interest rates and unemployment figures: ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%

This Roy Morgan poll of federal voting intentions and confidence in government was conducted by telephone and online among 1,382 Australian voters aged 18 and over from Monday April 11 to April 17, 2022. There were 6.5% voters (unchanged) who would not say who they support.

A Roy Morgan poll conducted during the first week of the election campaign shows the L-NP gaining 2% points on a bipartisan preferential basis, but still far behind the ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%.

The first week of the campaign was dominated by Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese’s ‘blunder’ when the ALP leader was unable to name the current ABS official unemployment rate and n Nor was able to name the correct interest rates set by the RBA.

The preferential bipartisan result of ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45% is the closest in over six months since early November 2021 where the bipartisan preferred lead was 7% points: ALP 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5%.

Had a federal election been held last weekend, the PLA would have won a clear majority.

The state-by-state analysis shows the ALP now leading in five states on a bipartisan preferential basis, but the L-NP regained the lead in Western Australia after the first week of the campaign.

This Roy Morgan poll of federal voting intentions and confidence in government was conducted by telephone and online among 1,382 Australian voters aged 18 and over from Monday April 11 to April 17, 2022. There were 6.5% voters (unchanged) who would not say who they support.

Primary support up for L-NP and Greens, but down for ALP, other parties and independents

Primary support for the L-NP rose 3 percentage points to 35.5% and now leads the ALP at 35%, down 1 percentage point. It is the first time in more than six months since early November 2021 that the L-NP has edged out the ALP in the primary vote.

The Greens were the other party to gain support in the first week of the campaign, up 1.5% to 14%. It’s the highest level of support for the Greens since the last federal election and came after Greens leader Adam Bandt’s quip to a reporter asking “Google, mate” about wage growth.

Support for One Nation fell 0.5% to 4.5% while support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party remained unchanged at 1.5%. Support for other parties fell 1 point to 3%, while support for independents fell 2 points to 6.5%.

Voting intention by state shows the ALP leading in five of the six states; L-NP ahead in WA

Although some of the state samples are relatively small, when there are large fluctuations, such as in WA, they are still a significant measure of sentiment. The big swing to the L-NP in WA also indicates that after the federal election was called, voters in that state are now refocusing their attention on national politics rather than thinking more about the state issues in which the ALP is dominant.

Analysis of the votes by state shows the ALP leading on a bipartisan preferential basis in five states, with the L-NP’s slight advantage in Western Australia being the only exception after the first week of the election campaign. L-NP gained ground in NSW, WA and Tasmania this week.

The ALP’s lead in New South Wales was cut off after Prime Minister Scott Morrison called a federal election for the end of May. The ALP is now at 53.5% (down 1.5% points) against the L-NP at 46.5% (up 1.5% points). This result represents a 5.8% change in points from the ALP since the 2019 federal election.

The situation is unchanged in Victoria with the ALP at 58% well ahead of the L-NP at 42%. This result represents a 4.9% change in points from the ALP in Victoria since the 2019 federal election.

The ALP increased its narrow edge in Queensland with the ALP at 51.5% (up 1% point) ahead of the L-NP at 48.5% (down 1% point). This result represents a sharp 9.9% change in points from the ALP since the 2019 federal election.

L-NP has made a big comeback in Western Australia and is now in the lead on a bipartisan preferential basis for the first time since mid-September 2021. L-NP at 51% (up 14.5% points ) now leads the ALP on 49% (down 14.5% points). Despite the L-NP’s narrow lead, this represents a 4.6% change in points from the ALP since the 2019 federal election.

In South Australia, there was a shift to the ALP this week with support for the ALP at 58% (up 5% from a week ago) well ahead of the L-NP at 42 % (down 5%). This represents a 7.3% change in points from the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election. The ALP has a large lead in Tasmania with the ALP 61% cf. L-NP 39%, a 2% swing points to the ALP since the 2019 federal election.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence up 2 points to 86 in first week of campaign

Government Roy Morgan’s confidence rating rose 2 points to 86 in the first week of the election campaign after Prime Minister Scott Morrison set the election date for Saturday May 21, 2022.

Now just over a third of Australians, 35% (down 1%), say the country is “going in the right direction”, while a plurality of 49% (down 3%) say that the country is “going in the wrong direction”. direction’.

Government confidence remains below 100 in all six states, however, there remains a wide divergence of almost 25 points between individual states. Trust in government is above average and highest in Western Australia on 97, South Australia on 93 and Victoria on 91.5.

Government confidence is below average in Queensland at 85.5, New South Wales at 80 and lowest of all in Tasmania at just 73.5 after the unexpected resignation of Tasmanian Prime Minister Peter Gutwein.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the L-NP won the first week of the official election campaign with a 2% swing in government, closing the gap between the two main parties, although the ALP still leads comfortably : ALP 55% see . L-NP 45%:

“Today’s Roy Morgan poll of federal voting intentions shows the ALP 55% (down 2% from a week ago) with a strong lead over the L-NP 45% ( up 2%) on a bipartisan preferential basis – although this is the closest margin between the two sides since early November 2021.

“There was a swing to the L-NP in the primary vote, up 3% to 35.5%. It is the L-NP’s best result, and also the first time the party has received more primary support than the ALP, since November 2021. Support for the ALP fell 1 point to 35%.

“The most notable event in the first week of the campaign was Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese’s inability to answer a simple question about Australia’s official ABS unemployment rate as well as the rate RBA’s official exchange rate – which is at an all-time high of just 0.1%. Albanese could not remember either number, and his uncertainty led to days of negative media coverage.

“The media commentary around the Albanese ‘gaffe’ has highlighted the fears of many Australians about the ALP’s ability to manage the economy. Australians have always considered the L-NP to be better economic managers than the ALP.

“The media tried a similar ‘gotcha’ question on Greens leader Adam Bandt later in the week regarding the wage price index. Instead of answering the question directly, Bandt told the reporter to “Google it , mate” – and that strategy appears to have paid off. Support for the Greens rose 1.5% to 14% – the highest since the last federal election.

“While the Greens have been gaining support over the past week, there has been considerable media analysis of Adam Bandt’s pledges and how they would be funded, which was not properly explained when he made the pledges.Bandt has since clarified that funding for the pledges will come through a substantial increase in taxes on big business – such as Australia’s mining companies, rather than through higher taxes on individuals.

“Rather than switch to the L-NP, it appears that some ALP voters frustrated with Albanese’s lack of knowledge about interest rates and unemployment decided to vote Green instead. Gains for the L-NP and the Greens also came at the expense of “other parties” with support down 1.5% to 9% and Independents down 2% to 6.5%.

“Other highlights from the first week of the campaign included concerns over the Solomon Islands’ close neighbor’s potential deal with China with Pacific Minister Zed Seselja making an unusual diplomatic trip to the Solomons during an election campaign. He there was also Australia’s purchase of a Norwegian defense force supply ship and a commitment to build two new naval vessels in Western Australia made by Prime Minister Morrison.

“Liberal infighting continued in New South Wales, with some moderate Liberals calling on Morrison’s hand-picked candidate in Warringah, Katherine Deves, to step down following earlier comments about transgender women, but Morrison s stood firmly behind Deves and claimed he would not join the pile. on’.

“Tonight the first leaders’ debate between Prime Minister Morrison and Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese will be held at 7pm at the ‘People’s Forum’ in Brisbane hosted by Sky News.”

Australian federal voting intention: bipartisan preference (2019-2022)

Source: Single Source Roy Morgan. Average interviews per fortnight n=2,000. May 2019–April 2022. Base: Australian voters aged 18 and over.

Australian Federal Voting Intention: Two-Party Preference (2019-2022) – Female Voters

Roy Morgan poll on federal voting intentions - Female voters - April 20, 2022

Source: Single Source Roy Morgan. Average interviews per fortnight n=1,000. May 2019–April 2022. Base: Female voters aged 18 and over.

Australian Federal Voting Intention: Bipartisan Preference (2019-2022) – Male Voters

Roy Morgan poll on federal voting intentions - Male voters - April 20, 2022

Source: Single Source Roy Morgan. Average interviews per fortnight n=1,000. May 2019–April 2022. Base: Male voters aged 18 and over.

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